BTC Price Prediction: Analyzing the Path to $140,000 Amid Geopolitical and Technical Tailwinds

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Geopolitical Turmoil as Traditional Markets React to Trump''s Iran Comments

Financial markets convulsed following former President Donald Trump''s remarks on Iran, with equities plunging and oil prices surging. Dow futures dropped 136 points, while WTI crude jumped 2% overnight as geopolitical risks escalated. Bitcoin remained resilient above $107,000, defying the sell-off in traditional assets.

The market reaction was immediate and visceral. Trump''s statement - "Iran should have signed the ''deal'' I told them to sign... IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON" - erased Monday''s gains across major indices. This volatility underscores the growing dichotomy between crypto and traditional markets during geopolitical crises.

Gold''s retreat below $3,400 surprised traders expecting safe-haven flows, while Bitcoin''s stability at elevated levels reinforced its emerging role as a macro asset. The cryptocurrency''s decoupling from equities during the turmoil suggests shifting investor perceptions about digital assets in crisis scenarios.

Strategy Bolsters Bitcoin Holdings with $1 Billion Purchase Amid Market Volatility

Strategy has added 10,100 bitcoin to its treasury at an average price of $104,080 per coin, totaling $1 billion. This marks the firm''s second major purchase in June, bringing its total holdings to 592,100 BTC—a position worth approximately $41.8 billion at an average cost of $70,666 per coin. The acquisition follows Bitcoin''s dip from $110,000 to $103,550 amid geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Iran.

The company continues to treat market downturns as buying opportunities, maintaining an average cost basis well below current prices. Its newly issued STRD preferred shares, which began trading on Nasdaq on June 11, aim to raise $250 million for further Bitcoin acquisitions without depleting cash reserves.

Strategy''s year-to-date Bitcoin yield now stands at 19.1%, with a revised target of 25% by December 2025. Achieving this ambitious goal hinges on sustained price appreciation over the coming year, particularly post-halving.

Bitcoin Demonstrates Resilience Amid Middle East Tensions

The cryptocurrency market exhibited remarkable resilience as Bitcoin swiftly recovered from a brief downturn triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Total market capitalization shed approximately $80 billion late Monday night, with Bitcoin momentarily dipping below $106,500 before rebounding to $107,000.

The volatility followed US President Donald Trump''s urgent call for evacuation of Tehran amid ongoing missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. Trump''s abrupt departure from the G7 summit and subsequent social media warnings intensified market jitters. Other global powers, including China and Russia, echoed evacuation advisories for Tel Aviv, signaling coordinated diplomatic pressure on Iran.

Despite geopolitical turbulence, Bitcoin''s rapid recovery underscores its growing maturity as a risk asset. The cryptocurrency''s performance suggests investors increasingly view digital assets as a distinct asset class rather than purely speculative instruments.

Arthur Hayes Warns of Stablecoin Mania as Circle Files for IPO

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a scathing critique of Circle''s impending public listing, framing it as the catalyst for a dangerous stablecoin bubble. "This essay might prevent a rapid expansion of your sphincter," Hayes quipped, cautioning traders against hype-driven investments in stablecoin issuers. He predicts billions in losses when the speculative frenzy collapses.

Hayes reserved particular disdain for Circle''s relationship with Coinbase, alleging CEO Jeremy Allaire operates at the behest of Brian Armstrong. The 50% revenue-sharing arrangement with Coinbase, Hayes argues, permanently handicaps Circle against Tether''s dominance.

The commentary takes a darker turn as Hayes recounts crypto''s operational realities. Professional traders must master fiat flows through Greater China''s banking systems, he insists, recalling 2013-era Bitcoin purchases via risky bank wires and physical cash exchanges. This institutional knowledge separates survivors from victims when platforms vanish with user funds.

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Purchase Tops Coinbase, Stock Jumps 17%

Metaplanet has cemented its position as a major institutional player in the Bitcoin market with its latest acquisition of 1,112 BTC for $117.2 million. The Tokyo-based firm now holds 10,000 BTC—surpassing Coinbase Global''s 9,267 BTC—at an average purchase price of $94,697 per bitcoin. This strategic accumulation has yielded an unrealized profit of $120 million, reflecting a 266.1% year-to-date return.

The MOVE signals growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset, with Metaplanet''s stock surging 17% following the announcement. At $105,435 per bitcoin, the acquisition demonstrates aggressive accumulation during price dips, a strategy that has outperformed traditional corporate treasury approaches.

Bitcoin''s institutional adoption narrative gains further validation as public companies increasingly treat the cryptocurrency as a balance sheet asset rather than a speculative play. Metaplanet''s billion-dollar position now ranks among the most significant corporate holdings globally.

Bitcoin HODLing Intensifies as Exchange Inflows Hit Historic Lows

Bitcoin''s resilience shines as geopolitical tensions fuel a flight to crypto safety. Both whales and retail investors are refusing to sell, with Binance recording historic lows in BTC inflows - a behavior last seen at the start of this market cycle.

The $107k resistance level crumbled under strong demand after three days of consolidation NEAR $102k. CryptoQuant data reveals an unprecedented alignment between whale and retail behavior across exchanges, signaling broad-based conviction in BTC''s store-of-value proposition during market uncertainty.

Bitcoin Price Struggles for Momentum Amid Rising Global Conflict Fears

Bitcoin''s price action shows tentative strength as it tests the $108,800 resistance level, though broader market uncertainty lingers. The digital asset climbed from $104,500 support, clearing multiple hurdles before facing rejection near $108,898. Technical indicators suggest consolidation, with the 100-hour SMA providing support at $106,800.

Market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions weigh on risk assets. The breakdown of a bullish trend line at $107,800 signals potential near-term weakness, though holding above $105,500 could preserve the upward trajectory. Liquidity pools around $108,000 and $108,800 represent key upside targets for bulls seeking continuation.

Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Rally to $140,000 Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitwise Asset Management''s European research arm suggests Bitcoin could surge to $140,000 within 50 days, drawing parallels to historical rebounds following geopolitical shocks. The firm''s analysis highlights a 31.2% average gain for Bitcoin after major risk events, with current market conditions mirroring past recovery patterns.

Renewed inflows into spot ETFs and dollar weakness have already shifted Bitwise''s sentiment index back into bullish territory. At Bitcoin''s current price near $107,000, the projected rally WOULD validate the cryptocurrency''s role as a hedge against global instability.

The thesis faces real-time testing as markets process unprecedented missile exchanges between Iran and Israel. Over 370 projectiles fired since June 13 have created what Bitwise describes as ''a textbook setup for crypto asset appreciation.''

Bitcoin Whale And Retail Inflows To Binance Fall To Cycle Lows, More Upside Ahead?

Bitcoin''s price dip to $106,900 amid Middle East tensions has sparked concerns about stalled momentum, but on-chain data reveals a bullish undercurrent. Both whale and retail inflows to Binance have plummeted to cycle lows—a rare synchronization last seen near market tops. This holding pattern suggests accumulated bullish conviction rather than distribution.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlights the significance of this alignment, noting only two prior instances in the current cycle. Unlike past tops where synchronized inflows preceded sell-offs, the current divergence points to suppressed exchange supply. The data implies a coiled spring scenario: limited sell-side pressure could amplify upside when geopolitical clouds clear.

Bitcoin Forms Rare Golden Cross Against Gold, Signaling Momentum Shift

Bitcoin has executed a rare golden cross against gold, with its 23-day moving average surpassing the 50-day average in the BTC/XAU ratio. This technical event, seldom seen in cryptocurrency markets, typically heralds significant momentum shifts. Since the crossover, Bitcoin has outpaced Gold by 2.67%, lifting the BTC/XAU ratio to 31.6—meaning one BTC now equals 31.6 ounces of gold.

At current levels, Bitcoin trades near $107,500 while gold holds at $3,404 per ounce. Though still below its December 2024 peak ratio of 41.074, the move underscores Bitcoin''s resurgence as a store of value amid macroeconomic turbulence. Golden crosses aren''t infallible, but traders and algorithms treat them as potent buy signals.

The development gains significance as both assets hover near record levels, reflecting evolving risk appetites. After a period of dormancy, the BTC/XAU ratio''s revival may signal either growing risk-on sentiment or sophisticated hedging strategies during inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability.

Bitcoin Mining Costs Surge Amid Rising Hashrate and Difficulty

Bitcoin miners face mounting pressure as network difficulty and hashrate hit record highs, squeezing profitability despite stable BTC prices. Mining difficulty reached an unprecedented 126.98 trillion, fueled by a 14-day average hashrate of 913.54 EH/s. Transaction fees have dwindled below 1% of block rewards, with hashprice briefly dipping to $52 per PH/s before a slight recovery.

Breakeven production costs are projected to surpass $70,000 per BTC, up from $64,000 in Q1, driven by escalating energy expenses and fierce competition. Major players like Marathon Digital, CleanSpark, and Riot Platforms are aggressively expanding operations to maintain competitiveness. Marathon boosted its hashrate by 30% in May, while HIVE Blockchain increased capacity by 32% following a new facility launch in Paraguay.

ASIC prices now range between $10 and $30 per terahash, with payback periods extending up to two years—assuming power costs of $0.06/kWh. Not all miners benefit from such rates; Terawulf''s Q1 power costs of $0.081/kWh pushed its fleet hashcost up over 25%.

Mining stocks exhibit mixed performance relative to Bitcoin’s price, with IREN, Core Scientific, and Bit Digital posting gains.

How High Will BTC Price Go?

Emma projects a short-term target of $109,800 (Bollinger upper band) with a potential rally to $140,000 if geopolitical risks ease and institutional inflows persist. Key data points: